While the United Arab Emirates has declared it will not allow its territory to be used for an attack on Iran, the U.S. has found a way around this regional hurdle. By deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln to the Mediterranean, the U.S. has secured a launch point that doesn’t require “permission” from third parties. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that demonstrates its total strategic isolation in the region.
The U.S. military exercise announced over the weekend is specifically designed to show the ability to “deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower” from these international waters. This capability negates Iran’s “anti-access/area-denial” strategies in the Persian Gulf. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that will hit from the west, a direction where its air defenses have historically been less concentrated compared to its southern coast.
In Tehran, the foreign ministry spokesperson has warned that “insecurity will befall everyone” if these international principles are violated. However, the move to the Mediterranean suggests that the U.S. is prepared to absorb or bypass any regional chaos Iran might attempt to stir up. The government is bracing for a strike that is as much about proving American naval dominance as it is about regime change.