Ryanair has revised its passenger target for fiscal 2027, reducing it from 216 million to 214 million, citing a decision to cut winter capacity in response to unhedged jet-fuel costs. With jet fuel prices hovering around $140 a barrel, the airline cautions that prolonged high prices might lead to significant increases in short-haul airfares across Europe. Between November and March, Ryanair anticipates passenger traffic will remain largely unchanged from the previous year, as it strategically manages its capacity during the traditionally slower winter months.
To mitigate the impact of current fuel prices, Ryanair has hedged about 80% of its fuel needs for fiscal 2027 at approximately $67 per barrel, offering some protection against market volatility. The decision to cut winter capacity is expected to reduce the airline’s seasonal losses by €70 million to €100 million. As part of its adjustments, Ryanair has already withdrawn five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and removed around two million seats from its Brussels schedule for the winter of 2026 and the following summer. The airline warns that companies with less fuel protection may face increased financial challenges if high oil prices persist.
Despite the anticipated challenges of the winter period, Ryanair remains optimistic about its summer performance, projecting traffic growth of over 5%. In August, the airline saw a 6% year-on-year increase in passenger numbers, reaching 22.2 million, with a steady load factor of 96%. Ryanair operated over 120,500 flights during the month, although more than 400 flights were canceled due to eruptions from Mount Etna.
Looking ahead, Ryanair expects its fiscal 2027 profit after tax to fall short of the previous financial year’s record levels. However, the airline stated it is too early to offer specific profit guidance. As the industry navigates the challenges posed by fluctuating fuel costs and seasonal demand variations, Ryanair’s strategic adjustments reflect its efforts to maintain stability and growth in a volatile market.